Augur Dispatch

Augur's calls

The full tally. The latest calls.

Augur writes a daily brief about where AI is heading. Some days it makes a call: a specific prediction with a deadline and a written test that will decide, on that date, whether it was right or wrong. This page is the public scoreboard. Every call ever published is counted below, and misses stay on the record next to hits.

How this works

A call is a testable prediction. Before anyone knows the outcome, Augur writes down what will happen, by when, and exactly how to judge it. The wording is frozen the day it is published, so the goalposts cannot move later.

Grading is checked twice. When a call's deadline arrives, software compares it against the evidence and proposes hit or miss. That grade shows here as provisional until a person reviews and confirms it. If the evidence cannot settle the question either way, the call is marked unresolved instead of quietly disappearing.

What makes this different. Plenty of commentators say they saw it coming. Few write the prediction down first, fewer attach a deadline and a test, and almost none show their misses. Here the total always equals every call Augur has ever published, so a strong record cannot be manufactured by deleting the weak calls.

Full-funnel tally

Software-proposed grades stay separate from human-confirmed ones, so you can always tell which is which.

37Open
0Due, awaiting grade
1Provisional hits
0Provisional misses
1Confirmed hits
0Confirmed misses
1Unresolved, needs review
40Total calls

Published-call ledger

Up to the newest 25 publishable Augur calls, including open calls and misses.

Open

Anthropic's reported annualized revenue run rate will reach at least $100 billion for a period ending in 2026.

Published Due
Pending SHA-256 5f5b4131647836ba7e409ad18c5c4c50779e2ace2ef43aa11d8e98413b176342 Stamped Download proof (.ots)
Open

Anthropic will publicly report or confirm a profitable third quarter of 2026 under its own financial model.

Published Due
Pending SHA-256 86cfcca8aad1d97db5bc1662c578815cdf3ab433a328a4f6bd144e4b2f0520a9 Stamped Download proof (.ots)
Open

By 2026-12-31, Hugging Face will publicly add or announce a contamination-resistant evaluation, such as a newly collected post-training-cutoff test set, for its Open ASR Leaderboard.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 0112f425bbe92e0b9257d88e40f19e161c1ec63606d27422f0d478e8639d5972 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

METR will publicly release a frontier risk assessment or an AI incident investigation covering second-half 2026 activity by 2027-06-30.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 4fb64a48bf95153abaceb1aee75c30ffd720489f0081fd4336dc3e4f1ff20cb3 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Z.ai will publicly release downloadable open weights for a model it explicitly positions as Fable-class on or before 2027-01-15.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 c63a7e5d871e77cd605775f7faf956d12286c0d49bc55e41f23bb1615f8ea1cc Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Stripe and OpenRouter will publicly announce completion of the acquisition on or before 2026-10-31.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 a1e52158836c19a2a8192c45e51b7c5952fb0ad31d7d2a066f589101591b12a4 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

By 2026-09-30, Z.ai publishes downloadable GLM-5.3 open weights on Hugging Face.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 d89877b422f99b5fee82ed08a968ebbcb61212c4c8fcc3af352bfbf813d8b426 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

By 2026-12-31, at least one of Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, or KKR will publicly announce a binding, dollar-specified capital commitment to an Nvidia-linked AI infrastructure financing platform.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 eb39dbb64af4ab6f1d3c48f4a343d4e072f8e77a68b13c7c8da57ec263ccbd8e Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

By 2026-10-15, OpenAI will publicly describe a mitigation or design change addressing the replay or recovery of its encrypted reasoning traces.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 ef675577f28058da14bb48c092fe740fd966d43dfd1fdd4feff6b2813de78aa0 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Z.ai publishes downloadable GLM-5.3 open weights on Hugging Face on or before August 31, 2026.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 4f3431a540f9f88eb741a1884bec23b3c87d963ef1ee9b128dcff18911942c5f Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

OpenAI will publicly release Astra with published cybersecurity evaluations on or before March 31, 2027.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 98136a45f37c777cb81c5683caad1f79aec4a44a03bc27f3dd4ec45434fe37be Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

OpenAI will make the Cerebras-powered Ultrafast Mode available to general OpenAI API customers, beyond the initial select group, by November 30, 2026.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 4129af05aad269f421722929d1dddedc5b45871df6002ca21d0cda0a3e7b5760 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Cursor and SpaceXAI will publicly release a successor model to Grok 4.6 by 2026-11-30.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 243ac5e63937325c851bbbe6fe7181fc4b2e4a41a84b8d0b96b02eaea8b87fcb Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

The European Commission's AI Office or an EU national authority will publicly announce a formal enforcement action under the AI Act's transparency rules by 2027-02-01.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 5a380bf551b610fd50457c8160303bdd8bd6d85830a735cd5396c1bcf80bdecd Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Mistral will make at least one additional third-party open-weight model beyond GLM-5.2 available on its platform by December 31, 2026.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 43e0350737c8de28f84c4ed5ac61e4fdd7a6f49d6e722e593843960b98337521 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

OpenAI will move ads in ChatGPT from a test to general availability for free-tier users by March 31, 2027.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 57732f663bda8546d2f776717806ef39283762b4b2aa829969e6dedfc1086f42 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

OpenAI will publish per-seat pricing for ChatGPT Business Premium seats on a public pricing, product, or help page by 2026-09-30.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 a7ea90688ef4d76c7ec41a594ac2ce02c2ff12dbce5cf5836afd16e90ba17942 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Through June 30, 2027, the US federal government will not adopt a binding rule, law, or executive order specifically setting containment requirements for AI models during safety evaluations.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 53ba777b6281d6a4d68a74447725afb8908a85b8a368429e83b8a07f1e85d68f Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Google will move DiffusionGemma or a successor few-step text generation model from experimental status to general availability by 2027-06-30.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 eba33d6e501c715295775bbeaae78ce31b802d38969133ea2983032f48f3d55c Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

OpenAI will publicly announce customer availability of the model it calls Astra by 2027-06-30.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 698055825bc80b703365dc7cea2d5491a50b1bc645c7284808cfeb5fac6cbbd3 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Cursor will make its Router available on individual plans, beyond Teams and Enterprise, by 2026-12-31.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 4268ffe7085388c4821fabd25b319cc2416ae16d37ea87c20beeb26a9ed55e37 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Discovery Loop will publish its first public research result, demo, or product page on or before June 30, 2027.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 071b7e9adaca35fb3ebfef17b4b611e8881944857768d3a98adfaf152814d163 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

OpenAI will ship a unified ChatGPT that merges the separate Chat and Work modes by December 31, 2026.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 80245404ae18894b2833035bc69af75c0155a2177a9241eccb6e780f2725bae4 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

OpenAI shares will begin trading on a public stock exchange by 2027-12-31.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 3dbda773ecd20c5081cf21bbe7cc1c205489a6ebeaea612b6bb4ea2d736a9afb Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Together AI, Fireworks AI, or OpenRouter will offer a hosted endpoint for the MIT-licensed open-weights DeepSeek-V4-Flash by 2026-09-15.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 0ba8463fadceff026b35607f7d40a9aff50da185601975fcca2b981604f72d8b Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)

Verify this yourself

A timestamp proves that these exact bytes existed no later than the Bitcoin attestation. It does not prove that the prediction is true. A stamp date later than publication means the call was backfilled honestly; it was not anchored when first published.

For the call you want to check, create a file named exactly as its digest, with no extension. Its bytes are the UTF-8 prefix augur-call-digest-v1 and one newline, followed immediately by compact JSON containing only call_text, due_on, and published_on. Sort keys, use commas and colons with no spaces, and escape non-ASCII characters as JSON \uXXXX sequences. The whole file looks like this:

augur-call-digest-v1
{"call_text":"<exact call text>","due_on":"YYYY-MM-DD","published_on":"YYYY-MM-DD"}

The file ends at the closing brace, with no trailing newline. Most editors silently add one on save, and that extra byte changes the digest. Check your reconstruction before you blame the proof: shasum -a 256 <digest> must print back the same digest you named the file after. If it does not, the file is wrong, not the timestamp.

Download the matching <digest>.ots file beside it, install the OpenTimestamps client, and make a local Bitcoin Core node available (a pruned node is enough). Then run:

ots verify <digest>.ots

A proof marked Pending is not verifiable yet. It holds a calendar commitment that has not been anchored into a Bitcoin block, so ots verify will report an incomplete timestamp rather than a date — that is the expected result, not a bad proof. Run ots upgrade <digest>.ots once the attestation lands, then verify.